Russia in contemporary Central Asia: comeback or continuity? The case of Tajikistan

Abstract

The dissolution of the USSR and creation of the New Independent States
(NIS) was accompanied by a rapid deterioration in relationships between
the component republics. With the disputable exception of the Baltic States,
the close dependence of the NIS members on Russia dominated their
foreign policies. This reliance was expressed at all levels - political,
economic, and particularly social. In this respect, Central Asia became
characterictic example. However, Tajikistan is a special case since its
dependency on Moscow became a question of survival for the Tajik regime.
During the civil war of 1992 to 1997, the Russian armed forces in the
country guaranteed at least some stability for president Rahmonov's
government. The conflict prioritised the military and military-political
spheres as the determining factors of the countries' relationship. The
formation of a permanent Russian military base in Tajikistan serves to
underline this partnership. Yet the ratification of the corresponding
agreement was, at least until 2004, one of Dushanbe's few tools for putting
pressure on Russia, particularly in the context of the US's military presence
in the region. Military cooperation is closely linked to economic
cooperation. Many companies in Tajikistan are owned by oligarchs close to
president Putin. For example, Oleg Deripaska's aluminium company, RusAl,
bought a majority stake in the aluminium factory in Tursunzode, which
produces a substantial portion of Tajikistan's GDP. In addition, Anatoliy
Chubays, director of the Russian state-owned United Energy Systems of
Russia, has expressed an interest in the construction of massive dams on
the Vanch River. The question is whether projects such as this can be
realised. Nevertheless, these economic projects do not affect the majority
of Tajiks. At the local level, people are primarily preoccupied with social
relations. In addition to the ethnic and linguistic links between Russians and
Tajiks (on both internal and external levels), a key role is played by labour
migration. A huge number of Tajiks leave the country in search of work in
Russia. This has implications for the domestic policies of both countries, as
well as for their relationship. The above-mentioned levels of Russian-Tajik
interaction show that, at least in the case of Tajikistan, we can talk about a
consolidation of Russia's position in Central Asia, but not about a Russian
comeback to Central Asia.